So, devolution day in Northern Ireland. It doesn’t seem particularly special to me. Of course, however much politicians and media get het up about it, I think there’s an over-riding feeling we’ve been here before. There are some unique points (Martin McGuiness & Ian Paisley standing side-by-side? I don’t think anyone could have predicted that), but it will take some concrete steps, and probably a lot of time before our new Assembly can prove they are a force to be concerned with. In the grand scheme of things, I think little will change. There must be very few people in Northern Ireland who believe this is some grand turning point, that everything will be wonderful from now on. Punishment beatings, drugs, the rash of tiger kidnappings in Derry, the utter pointlessness and petty criminality of the armed factions who are little more than gangs (I’m talking to you, LVF) and the endless bickering which characterises the full spectrum of Norn Irish politics; I doubt that we’ll see much change there.

And so time moves on. The DUP will lose more support from its traditional base, and it’s been harmed by the desertion of long-term supporters like Jim Allister MEP, but may pick up some of the UUP vote, if it can tone down the hard-line rhetoric which has characterised it in the past. If it could keep a leash on some of its representatives which have given it an image problem with the mainstream in the past few years, it might do even better. I’m afraid it has to be said that Sinn Fein often come across better than the DUP. Jeffrey Donaldson, Nigel Dodds and, at times, Ian Paisley Jnr, are reactionary, brash, and often seem one step from frothing at the mouth. Lads, it works for the Reverend, but you just can’t carry it off. Gerry Kelly and Peter Robinson could be cut from the same cloth; they both remind me of wolves. Speaking of, Sinn Fein will continue to gain in the middle classes who’ve traditionally chosen the SDLP. The Social Democrats have been on a gentle downwards slope in the past few years, and I fear that will continue as Sinn Fein become more respectable, which saddens me as I’ve always had a soft spot for them. Along with the UUP, I think they will find it difficult to persuade voters that they are still relevant as the reasonable choice on either side of the political divide. Then there’s the tiny minority of the electorate who vote Alliance, more through hope than expectation. It’d be difficult to predict how they might go; they tend to campaign very locally, and do well in areas where issues are not sectarian-related. There are vast swathes of Northern Ireland where they would never pick up votes at the moment, but devolution could lead to less polarisation and more voters moving towards the centre, which may bode well for them. That would be a long way down the road, though.

Today was a day more for novelty than anything else. It’s been achievement enough to get all of them around a table; now let’s see if they can accomplish anything while they’re there.